Climate For All

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Category Archives: Oceans

Fun With Pixels

Chris Turney Cant Pixel Out Of This One

Jan 2nd 2014

2/2/14 Image of the region located around Mertz Glacier, Mawson Hut, and the stranded Akademik Shokalskiy. Image Provided by NASA EOSDIS Worldview

Hopefully, most of you have been following the story at WUWT  about  the Russion research vessel Shokalskiy,   that has been stranded in sea-ice since Christmas Eve. If not, you can read what I wrote about it here and here After the Shokalskiy had been unable to be freed by numerous attempts, an airlift of the passengers was undertaken 8 days after being stuck in sea-ice.

A team of scientists lead by Chris Turney, had been attempting to follow a century old expedition that was led by Sir Douglas Mawson into the Antarctic, south of Australia.  The expedition was known as the Australia Antarctic Expedition 1911-1914.  This expedition bares the same name, but there is hardly any similarity between the two. Armed with a science team of on-board and on-shore scientists, college grads doing post-graduate work, friends, family, journalists and anyone else wanting to cough up the tens of thousands of dollars, set off for Antarctica to:

“…truly meld science and adventure, repeating century old measurements to discover and communicate the changes taking place in this remote and pristine environment.” – AAE Expedition Aim

The story I write tonight is about Chris Turney and how he is attempting to disguise how inept he is, and hopefully I can prove that. Because Turney veers away from the expeditions aim to ‘discover and communicate’, into a more of a ‘ hide and obfuscate’ aim.

I’ll tell you why I think so. Or better yet, I’ll show you.

Read more of this post

Aurora Australis fails to rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy

The Greens have lost their minds

art-Aurora-Australis-620x349

view from the stern of the Aurora Australis.

Its been five days since the Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in heavy ice-pack near Mertz Glacier in the Antarctic.

Since that time, 3 ships have attempted to rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy, and all 3 had to turn back to open waters.

Current conditions at the rescue site has low visibility due to low laying fog.

The Captain of the Australis says:

“The ice became too thick for us to penetrate. Some of the floes are up to two metres of ice with a metre of snow on top and very compact.

“There was just nowhere for us to go.”

“It was pushing those same types of floes in behind us.”

“If we got into that compact stuff it would have sealed us in, we would have lost our manoeuvreability and we wouldn’t have been much use to anybody.

“Having been caught in ice before, I know by experience when to get out. I didn’t want to add to the drama, instead of being part of the solution.”

“We had no visibility so we couldn’t really see if there was a way through.”

So what does Chris Turney, the leader of the expedition, do while the Australis was attempting to free them from the ice-pack.

He tweets,”It’s so warm, it’s actually raining.”

Excuse me? WTF?

Chris can’t tweet about the fog, or the fact the ship there to save them is in retreat, or the 55km winds buffeting the area.

No…. he tweets its raining. I think Turney must be delirious.

Then of course is the little side humor coming from the Australis.

Someone got out onto the deck of the Australis and wrote into the snow on the deck…. now get this.. GREEN…

Someone has a sense of humor. I have got to talk to whoever did that.

What A Difference A Century Makes

What A Difference A Century Makes

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In this image provided by Australasian Antarctic Expedition, Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy is trapped in thick Antarctic ice 1,500 nautical miles south of Hobart, Australia, Friday, Dec. 27, 2013. (AP Photo / Australasian Antarctic Expedition, Chris Turney)

Could a century old expedition to the uncharted lands of the Antarctic participate in the further unraveling of catastrophic man-made global warming?

Some of you may have already picked up on the struggles of a Russian research vessel getting caught up in thick ice-pack in the Antarctic. I had first heard of the story, having been reported from ABC News in Australia here.  Near the end of the article, Russell Goldman wrote,

“Of the 57 souls on board, 22 are crewmen and 35 are passengers. The ship cruised to the site of a 1911-1914 expedition of British explorer Sir Douglas Mawson.”

So, being curious where this ship might have been caught up in the ice-pack, I decided to read a little bit into Sir Douglas Mawson and this site that the current cruise ship was supposedly at. As luck would have it, I stumbled across a Book that Mawson wrote about his expedition to the Antarctic. The book is called, “The Home of the Blizzard- Being the story of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition, 1911-1914.” If you have time, I suggest everyone read the book. But for now, I just want to show a portion of the book, regarding Mawsons account of Cape Denison, the location he used to build what is now known as the Mawson huts and what I assume is the location of the stranded cruise ship. Mawson writes,

“The main body of the archipelago was found to be separated by a mile and a half from the mainland. A point which struck us at the time was that the islets situated on the southern side of the group were capped by unique masses of ice; resembling iced cakes. Later we were able to see them in process of formation. In the violent southerly hurricanes prevalent in Adelie Land, the spray breaks right over them. Part of it is deposited and frozen, and by increments the icing of these monstrous “cakes” is built up. The amount contributed in winter makes up for loss by thawing in midsummer. As the islets to windward shelter those in their lee, the latter are destitute of these natural canopies.

Soundings were taken at frequent intervals with a hand lead-line, manipulated by Madigan. The water was on the whole shallow, varying from a few to twenty fathoms. The bottom was clothed by dense, luxuriant seaweed. This rank growth along the littoral was unexpected, for nothing of the kind exists on the Ross Sea coasts within five or six fathoms of the surface.

Advancing towards the mainland, we observed a small islet amongst the rocks, and towards it the boat was directed. We were soon inside a beautiful, miniature harbour completely land-locked. The sun shone gloriously in a blue sky as we stepped ashore on a charming ice-quay — the first to set foot on the Antarctic continent between Cape Adare and Gaussberg, a distance of one thousand eight hundred miles.

Wild and I proceeded to make a tour of exploration. The rocky area at Cape Denison, as it was named, was found to be about one mile in length and half a mile in extreme width. Behind it rose the inland ice, ascending in a regular slope and apparently free of crevasses — an outlet for our sledging parties in the event of the sea not firmly freezing over. To right and left of this oasis, as the visitor to Adelie Land must regard the welcome rock, the ice was heavily crevassed and fell sheer to the sea in cliffs, sixty to one hundred and fifty feet in height. Two small dark patches in the distance were the only evidences of rock to relieve the white monotony of the coast.

In landing cargo on Antarctic shores, advantage is generally taken of the floe-ice on to which the materials can be unloaded and at once sledged away to their destination. Here, on the other hand, there was open water, too shallow for the ‘Aurora’ to be moored alongside the ice-foot. The only alternative was to anchor the ship at a distance and discharge the cargo by boats running to the ideal harbour we had discovered. Close to the boat harbour was suitable ground for the erection of a hut, so that the various impedimenta would have to be carried only a short distance. For supplies of fresh meat, in the emergency of being marooned for a number of years, there were many Weddell seals at hand, and on almost all the neighbouring ridges colonies of penguins were busy rearing their young.64

As a station for scientific investigations, it offered a wider field than the casual observer would have imagined. So it came about that the Main Base was finally settled at Cape Denison, Commonwealth Bay.

We arrived on board at 8 P.M., taking a seal as food for the dogs. Without delay, the motor-launch was dropped into the water, and both it and the whale-boat loaded with frozen carcasses of mutton, cases of eggs and other perishable goods.

While some of us went ashore in the motor-launch, with the whale-boat in tow, the ‘Aurora’ steamed round the Mackellar Islets seeking for a good anchorage under the icy barrier, immediately to the west of the boat harbour. The day had been perfect, vibrant with summer and life, but towards evening a chill breeze sprang up, and we in the motor-launch had to beat against it. By the time we had reached the head of the harbour, Hoadley had several fingers frost-bitten and all were feeling the cold, for we were wearing light garments in anticipation of fine weather. The wind strengthened every minute, and showers of fine snow were soon whistling down the glacier. No time was lost in landing the cargo, and, with a rising blizzard at our backs, we drove out to meet the ‘Aurora’.”

This is a map of the Antarctic as Mawson knew it (As seen in the book, Home of the Blizzard)

This is a map of the Antarctic as Mawson knew it (As seen in the book, Home of the Blizzard)

There is so much information having been  wrote here, that I force myself to focus on the part I highlighted. Mawson writes that they usually unpack onto the ice-floe and sled it in, but because of the open water, they used a smaller boat to bring their gear to shore.

It was at this juncture I thought I felt I had some evidence to suggest the location of our stranded cruise/research ship. I must now switch gears and discuss what is happening in the here and now, with this stranded ship I was discussing earlier.

The ship in question is the Russian passenger ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy. From Expeditions Online they write, “The Akademik Shokalskiy is a fully ice-strengthened expedition vessel built in 1984 for polar and oceanographic research. This class of vessel is world renowned for polar exploration, because of its strength, maneuverability and small passenger numbers.” On a side note, they also write,”NOTE TO NEWS REPORTERS: Expeditions Online is NOT the operator for this vessel but is an independent polar booking agent for this and many other expedition ships.” That got a giggle out of me. They are already covering their ass!

The only report I could find Christmas night coming from this expedition, was from one of the scientists on board. His name is Chris Turney. Chris Turney wrote on his twitter page,”We’re in the ice like the explorers of old! All are well and spirits are high. Happy Christmas from the AA…”

Now, if some of you haven’t been following the story, well, not a lot had been known. The media either knew little, or those that did know, weren’t writting about it. It hadn’t been until  Friday that several stories were been published. As of this moment, almost every news agency is reporting about it. And they are all nearly writing the same thing. The Russian vessel is stuck and 2 of the 3 Icebreakers can’t reach the stranded vessel. Both the Chinese icebreaker SnowDragon, and the French icebreaker L’Astrolabe, had to break off their rescue mission and are on standy by. The Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis is currently another day away, but speculation is that even it won’t be able to break through either. L’Astrolabe and Aurora Australis are both LR 1A Super Icebreakers. I imagine that if one 1A icebreaker can’t get through, another one can’t either. Also, it was just a little over a month ago that the Aurora Australis itself was caught in heavy ice-pack, 180 miles from shore near Davis Station, Antarctica. It took nearly 3 weeks to get unstuck. That is another story that seemed to have got passed by MSM.

So, to this point, what do we know. The Akademik Shokalskiy is stuck near Cape Denison, and 2 of 3 Icebreakers have been unable to dislodge it from the seas frozen grasp. We also know that the ship is following the Douglas Mawson expedition of 1911-1914. Or did they?

After some further research, I came upon this website, The Spirit of Mawson. The very first paragraph is quoted as saying,

“The Antarctic remains one of the last great unexplored regions on Earth. In spite of a century of discovery, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean remain a unique place to monitor the health of our planet. The Australasian Antarctic Expedition – the AAE – will truly meld science and adventure, repeating century old measurements to discover and communicate the changes taking place in this remote and pristine environment.”

Then directly underneath this paragraph,  is a graph displaying what they call a Live Expedition Tracker.

AAE 2013

When we zoom into the graph, we can see that in fact, the expedition had already visited the Mawson huts and are now actually

AAE 2013 Cape Denison

Their current location

Current location of stranded ship.

Now, of course, I was intrigued. Had they actually been to the harbour at the Mawson hut, without any obstruction of sea ice, and continued east and got stuck, or is there something else going on here. I had to research a little more.

Chris Turney blogs at SpiritofMawson, “Following our successful visit to Cape Denison, sea ice remained clear, allowing our science expedition to proceed to the Mertz Glacier and open water polynya on the other side of Commonwealth Bay.” He says they had a successful visit, but upon further review, I think he is being a little misleading. While they had a couple teams reach Cape Denison, it was in the manner they reached there.

Arriving-at-Cape-Denison_sm

The vehicle that got the teams to Mawson Hut

Turney is quoted as saying,

“We set off at 0630 on the morning of the 19 December with excitement and some trepidation. Would we make it to Mawson’s Hut? I dared to hope but knew we faced all manner of challenges. We had some 65 kilometres of uncharted sea ice to navigate, with jumbled surfaces and tidal cracks to negotiate. The sky was cloudy and promised no warmth. And yet morale was high. We were giving it a go. With Greg waving us off, we took off with the tracked Argo in the lead, the vehicles packed with the team members and gear.”

No, they had not reached Mawson Hut by ship, but by Argo! Some 40 miles from their destination, they unloaded their ATVs and trekked the last 65 km to reach their destination. If this is what Turney considers a successful visit, I think we can only agree that it was a partial success.

A true success would have been to arrive their in a ship. Just like Mawson did.

Well, I wouldn’t have expected a clear disclosure from this team.

The purpose of the expedition, as Andrew Peacock, doctor/photographer for the expedition put it, “Our expedition will be ‘monitoring the health of the planet’ by trying to gauge the changes since Mawson’s time. We will be repeating the measurements made by Mawson’s team – with observations of the ocean, wildlife, weather, geology and ice cover.”

I can’t help but reflect how this story so closely resembles another bungled expedition. Some of you may remember the PR stunt known as ‘Row To The Pole.’ In their attempt to reach the North Pole, via a rowing boat, they had first said they had reached the north pole. A first of its kind. But later, as investigative journalists discovered, the row boat had for most of the last leg to reach their destination, had been towed by hand, and that they hadn’t traveled to the North Pole, but to a location of magnetic north from 1995. They later corrected their claims, but by then, many media outlets had already hoisted them as heros and claimed the feat as a result of global warming.

Lets see now what comes from this story. I will keep you up to date as the information comes in. Until then, lets pay our respects to Sir Douglas Mawson and his successful  attempt to Cape Denison and the further discovers he made 100 years ago.

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Sir Douglas Mawson

Happy Holidays !

Alan Bryant

Tide Gauges & Mean Sea Level

Tide Gauges & Mean Sea Level

Will The Real Sea Level Trend Please Stand Up !

In my continuing saga of sea levels, I thought that the work done by David Burton deserved its own post.

If anyone of you have been following my articles on Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL), I hope to bring even more nuggets of information your way.

David Burton has put together, probably the most comprehensive work regarding Mean Sea Levels.

You can view his website here.

Here is an partial image of his MSL Table page:

Pretty damn good work if you ask me.

The only thing I want to add,  is a comment that I used as an update to my GMSL article here and as a comment at WUWT here.

David Burton already beat me to determining MSL, using existing tide gauges.

Thank goodness. It would have taken me months to do the calculations.
0.61 mm/year.

Though before we get our hopes up, RealClimate already ‘debunked‘  him, saying that his calculations are not peer-reviewed and doesn’t take into account GIA.

In regards to tide gauge mean sea level averages, what purpose does it serve to include an adjustment for GIA?(rhetorical)

Tide gauges are one dimensional readings though. Simply height.

GIA is about 3D volumetric displacement of land mass, due to uplift from ice sheet loss, and giving a value to correct a means for that displacement of land mass.

So while we’re at it, lets adjust for subduction, sinkage, sea wave erosion, lava buildup, island construction(my favorite), and any other phenomena that adjusts the height of any given tide gauge.

We can’t though, because each tide gauge is not effected by one or more phenomena that another tide gauge might be effected by.

That is why the GIA correction can only be applied to satellite altimetry data.
This only allows the alarmist community to confuse the issue, using convoluted models to support their propagandization.

The actual, physical observance of existing tide gauges the world over show only a 0.61 mm/year rise in the historical registry.

Which leads me to wonder where all that rise is hiding at.

If we don’t see any physical evidence at known tide gauge sites, then all the rise must be happening wherever man is not present.

Those 50 mile long, remote, uninhabitable beach fronts must be 10 feet under water right now.

Global Mean Sea Level

An Introduction Into Global Mean Sea Level, A Fallacy of  Alarmism, and Beyond

How Reliable Is This Graph ? Courtesy of UC@Boulder

UPDATE:

Here is the latest image from the Sea Level Research Group at the University of Colorado:

GMSL Courtesy of UC@Boulder

This is how the confusion starts in regards to GMSL.

Both graphs show a rate of 3.1 , but use a different order of corrections.

The first graph is from 2010, has no inverse barometer correction  and no GIA application.

The Second graph is from 2011, has the inverse barometer applied and GIA applied.

Meaning, that in order to continue to show the same exact rate of rise, they had to modify the means by adding values to their data.

AGAIN !

The  sea level group from UC @ Boulder  have this to say about the matter:

One important change in these releases is that we are now adding a correction of 0.3 mm/year due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), so you may notice that the rate of sea level rise is now 0.3 mm/year higher than earlier releases. This is a correction to account for the fact that the global ocean basins are getting slightly larger over time as mantle material moves from under the oceans into previously glaciated regions on land. Simply subtract 0.3 mm/year if you prefer to not include the GIA correction.

What the FUCK !?!?!?!

Why include the GIA correction now, if you hadn’t been doing it before.

And then tell us if ya don’t like it, just subtract 0.3 mm/year from the average.

OK FINE ! I WILL !

That means that in one year, the GMSL annual average of satellite altimetry data, has dropped  from 3.1 to 2.8 mm/year.

In order for a 20 year average to decrease by an amount of 0.3 mm/year is……… a 6.0 mm drop in a year.

I don’t know about you, but thats a huge dip.

I guess it’s not ok to have a decline in the average, when you have an army of alarmists screaming,

“IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT!!!”

I will end my rant for now with this….

What goes up….

Reminds me what Timo Niroma said about the length of solar cycles 15-22, “The short cycles of the 20th century has created a debt that must be paid.”
The value added adjustments in GMSL, allowing alarmists to suggest an accelerated rise, will undoubtedly cause nature to slam the whole process.
I know this is bad form on my part, but I kind of hope that those in a position to claim, “Its worse than we thought”, continue to do so.
So when the bottom falls out of CAGW, they fall right along with it.

Introduction to GMSL

“The IPCC considers two simple indices of climate change, global mean temperature and sea level rise. The change in global mean temperature is the main factor determining the rise in sea level; it is also a useful proxy for overall climate change.”

IPCC Technical Paper III1.2.4

The Global Temperature and Sea Level 

Implications of Stabilizing Greenhouse Gases

Having already written several posts on sea levels, I think it has become necessary to investigate the origins of sea level data, how it is interpreted, and what, if any, conclusions can be derived from it.

Read more of this post

Tamino

Why Tamino’s ‘Open Mind’ Isn’t

This is what denial looks like.

Tamino is your garden variety environmental alarmist. His blog sites header says OPEN MIND, but beyond that, you will only find closed doors to reality.
A few days ago I had made yet another adventure to the ‘other side’, and decided to test the waters of reason with an alarmist.
Tamino had written a blog called, “Jerk.”
The opening remark went like this:
“In the last post I showed that not only is CO2 increasing, its growth rate is also increasing. So, the growth rate of CO2 is faster now than it was just a few decades ago. Significantly so.”
Having just posted my own  article on the deceleration of sea levels, despite rising levels of Co2, I thought I would post a comment about his assumption.
My Comment was this:

 ClimateForAll | April 17, 2011 at 2:55 am |

“I hope you are as ‘open-minded’ as such that your blog suggests, because I would like to challenge that theory with a question.
You stated:

‘I showed that not only is CO2 increasing, its growth rate is also increasing. So, the growth rate of CO2 is faster now than it was just a few decades ago. Significantly so.’

Many of the CAGW predictions from noted scientists and panels around the world, have come under attack from many sectors.
Co2 has been used in climate models to explain, rising temperatures, melting sea ice, more hurricanes, and my personal favorite, rising sea levels.
Many environmental impact studies have predicted that as Co2 increases, many coastal areas will be inundated with erosion and flooding, due to rising sea levels.
And MSM continues to quote scientists and environmental talking heads that suggest, ‘it’s worse than we thought,’ because we should expect anywhere from 2-6 feet of rise by centuries end.
On 2-23-11, In the Journal of Coastal Research, Houston & Dean had this to say in their published paper::

Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore, sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration, we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60–156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations.
———————————————————————————————

It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.

My question to you is this:

If Co2 rise is ‘faster’, ‘larger’, ‘increasing’ or whatever term you wish to use for the acceleration of CAGW, where is the evidence, in regards to sea level rise?”

Here is his response:

Read more of this post

More On Sea Levels

Sea Level Predictions Revisited

UPDATE #1: A more succinct paper written by Nils-Axel Morner further supports my claim on sea level deceleration can be found in this PDF :

Here is Morners Bio:

Renowned oceanographic expert Nils-Axel Mörner has studied sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 45 years. Recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, Mörner is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project.

UPDATE #2: In addition to both Nils-Axel Morner and Houston & Dean, a supporting paper on sea level deceleration comes from Australia:

Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia?
by P. J. Watson

Here is excerpt of that abstract:

“These long records have been converted to relative 20-year moving average water level time series and fitted to second-order polynomial functions to consider trends of acceleration in mean sea level over time. The analysis reveals a consistent trend of weak deceleration at each of these gauge sites throughout Australasia over the period from 1940 to 2000.”

So what we have here is 3 papers, all showing a deceleration of sea levels, in 3 different regions around the globe, an no one is talking about it.

Hence, I will talk about it here.

Since my last post, Sea Level Predictions, I felt it was necessary to key in on some new key points.

Reuters released this ‘alarmist’ article by Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent, entitled:

Rising seas threaten 180 U.S. cities by 2100: study

WASHINGTON | Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:51pm EST

“(Reuters) – Rising seas spurred by climate change could threaten 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100, a new study says, with Miami, New Orleans and Virginia Beach among those most severely affected.”

Yeah, whatever.

But on the other side of the issue comes a scientific article from the Journal of Coastal Research:

Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses

ABSTRACT HOUSTON, J.R. and DEAN, R.G., 0000. Sea-level acceleration based on U.S. tide gauges and extensions of previous global-gauge analyses. Journal of Coastal Research, 00(0), 000–000. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Without sea-level acceleration, the 20th-century sea-level trend of 1.7 mm/y would produce a rise of only approximately 0.15 m from 2010 to 2100; therefore, sea-level acceleration is a critical component of projected sea-level rise. To determine this acceleration, we analyze monthly-averaged records for 57 U.S. tide gauges in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data base that have lengths of 60–156 years. Least-squares quadratic analysis of each of the 57 records are performed to quantify accelerations, and 25 gauge records having data spanning from 1930 to 2010 are analyzed. In both cases we obtain small average sea-level decelerations. To compare these results with worldwide data, we extend the analysis of Douglas (1992) by an additional 25 years and analyze revised data of Church and White (2006) from 1930 to 2007 and also obtain small sea-level decelerations similar to those we obtain from U.S. gauge records. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Global climate change, Sea level rise.

The one statement that stands out is, “…. we obtain small average sea-level decelerations.”

And in their concluding statement, this quote is made:

“It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years.”

 Read more of this post

Permafrost – The Cold Hard Facts

Permafrost – The Cold Hard Facts


Permafrost, the ‘frozen soil in a thermal state’, is likely the least studied phenomena in all of the environmental studies to date. After having read a dozen or so peer-reviewed papers, almost in each instance, those papers would include in their introduction or conclusion that more study and grants are needed to fully understand the science.

My purpose for bringing this subject up, is that a AP writer, Dan Joling, wrote a article on Monday, March 28th entitled ,”Warming brings unwelcome change to Alaskan villages.”

Joling, like so many others before him, write about environmental impacts as a result of man-made global warming, without discussing both sides of the story. Facts are rarely used and a single quote or two is made by some noted scientist that warns us that ‘climate change’ is to blame. Joling’s article bares this same resemblance.

The truth is, the town discussed in the article, Kivalina, is a coastal town that suffers from sea wave erosion. The city is currently seeking to relocate because of the erosion and had sued 24 companies in order to relocate. Kivalina cites that greenhouse gases are to blame. Kivalina also claims that a Canadian oil company is responsible for polluting its water source. Currently the suit is under appeal, after having been dismissed.

Neither the subject of sea wave erosion or the class action suits are mentioned in Jolings report, and both of these discoveries could very well contribute to a very different story, if Joling bothered to research the story at all.

Melting permafrost , due to global warming, is only a smoke screen for the real story. Sea wave erosion and soil contamination is more likely the issue, and greed could very well be the motivating factor for the city of Kivalina in order to blame global warming as its cause.

Yet, permafrost and its understanding deserves our attention as more and more stories like this continue to run in the main stream media.

The rest of my post will focus on the facts about permafrost and how some wish to manipulate those facts.

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Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Predictions



Doomsday scenarios, would-be disasters, tipping points, and other prognostications from your average ordinary climate change alarmists are in full bloom this year.  Currently, sea level rise is taking a beating in the media and I thought to soften the blow, I would follow up on a comment I had made on WUWT about a month ago.

In the January, 1953 issue of Popular Science, I found this little nugget of information:

Dr. George F. Carter was quoted as saying, “Sea level the whole world over is five inches higher. Because this is the tail end of a glacial period, polar ice is melting and filling up the oceans. Future harbor works should be planned for an expected sea level rise of 24 inches within the next century.”

Now, this comment, given by Dr. Carter over 50 years ago, was printed in the editors column of Popular Science, and made very little headlines anywhere else. What I do find significant about this prediction is how this quote made in 1953, is in fact a prediction on sea level rise that is higher than the predictions made by the I.P.C.C. in AR4 some 55 years later.

Keep in mind that Dr. Carter was basing his predictions on science and natural occurrences, not global warming or modeling.

To illustrate what I mean, here is a graph represented by Early Warning :

You will notice that the highest marks by the AR4 are lower than the quote made by Dr. Carter 50 some odd years earlier, just under 60 centimeters. Which is just a little under 24 inches. Also in the above graph, the new predictions for sea level rise are nearly double or triple of the previous predictions made by the I.P.C.C., in the AR4.

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Is the Arctic Sea Ice in Retreat ?

Is the Arctic Sea Ice in Retreat?

UPDATE :   Its been a year now since I posted this article and felt it was time update a little bit. Here is the latest graph from IARC-JAXA:

April 29th 2011

Back in January of this year, it was very noticeable that many writers chose to no longer wait till minimum ice extent data in September, and chose to inundate many readers about how Arctic Sea Ice was at its lowest for December. That was very poor commentary, even for the ‘hot-heads’.

The measurement of annual Arctic Sea Ice , for good or bad, has always come at minimum ice extent in September. It is upon many predictions, that Co2 will create ice-free summers in the Arctic in the not so distant future.

When sea ice extent didn’t reach the milestone year of 2007, the hot-heads have had to alarm the media in other ways. Stories about thinning multi-year ice, increased concentrations of Co2, methane, and cherry-picking data has become the norm.

The alarmist suggests, that though the Arctic Ice hasn’t fallen below 2007, that it is just a matter of time. The alarmist will emphatically tell you that man-made Co2 will eventually create enough heat to end all of the debate over CAGW( Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming).

The mantra in the media is hype every weather occurrence  as man-made.

Be it glaciers, the Arctic, floods, drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, whatever. It’s pathetic to see such desperation, from so many people, to convince themselves and others, that YOU are to blame, for EVERYTHING.

The facts no longer matter. Its your belief that matters now.

The alarmist wants us all to just believe. The alarmist wants us to disregard any theory.

Because any theory or fact that sheds doubt over our blame, is untrue, unproven, political incorrect, and conspiratorial.

The alarmist want to shame you into belief. The alarmist wants to control what you think.

The media inundates us with news on, ‘How to talk to a skeptic’, ‘Its worse than expected’, ‘We’ve gone beyond the tipping point’, It’s our children that will suffer’, ‘The fossil fuel industry is only protecting it’s interests’. So on and so forth.

Rubbish.

The only thing in retreat is common sense from those that would have you believe YOU caused all this.

Anyways, come check back by here in September, and lets see if there is anything worth feeling alarmed about. Read more of this post