Sea Level Predictions
Doomsday scenarios, would-be disasters, tipping points, and other prognostications from your average ordinary climate change alarmists are in full bloom this year. Currently, sea level rise is taking a beating in the media and I thought to soften the blow, I would follow up on a comment I had made on WUWT about a month ago.
In the January, 1953 issue of Popular Science, I found this little nugget of information:
Dr. George F. Carter was quoted as saying, “Sea level the whole world over is five inches higher. Because this is the tail end of a glacial period, polar ice is melting and filling up the oceans. Future harbor works should be planned for an expected sea level rise of 24 inches within the next century.”
Now, this comment, given by Dr. Carter over 50 years ago, was printed in the editors column of Popular Science, and made very little headlines anywhere else. What I do find significant about this prediction is how this quote made in 1953, is in fact a prediction on sea level rise that is higher than the predictions made by the I.P.C.C. in AR4 some 55 years later.
Keep in mind that Dr. Carter was basing his predictions on science and natural occurrences, not global warming or modeling.
To illustrate what I mean, here is a graph represented by Early Warning :
You will notice that the highest marks by the AR4 are lower than the quote made by Dr. Carter 50 some odd years earlier, just under 60 centimeters. Which is just a little under 24 inches. Also in the above graph, the new predictions for sea level rise are nearly double or triple of the previous predictions made by the I.P.C.C., in the AR4.
Supposedly, this new radical prediction, which comes from several sources, suggest that the I.P.C.C. got it wrong due to modeling error.
One source that claims this is the University of Arizona at Tucson. Their study modeled climate changes from 130,000 years ago to predict future sea level changes. In the modeled era, sea levels rose roughly between nine and 13 feet. The study concluded that sea levels would continue to rise at peak rates of more than three feet per century.
Another study done by the University of Colorado at Boulder, which they claim that a global sea rise of more than six feet by the year 2100, is nearly impossible. Their team concluded that the most plausible scenario would result in a total sea rise of roughly three feet to six feet by 2100.
Keep in mind that these studies use models that continue to use Co2 emissions as a contributing factor to increased temperature and ice melt.
To evaluate these revelations as credible, one would have to conclude that a annual report written by the I.P.C.C. three years ago, by whom some would regard as the brightest and most learned scholars and scientists, got it wrong, and that a new breed of students at the university level are more capable and intelligent than their predecessors.
All of this scientific posturing serves no useful purpose, other than to scare and manipulate the media.
I hope that I can demonstrate my point by providing some very fundamental graphs from NOAA’s Tides & Currents website.
Here is a graph from Wilmington, North Carolina:
The sea level rise for this city is less that .08 inches a year. Thats over a period of 75 years with no sudden increase in rise.
Here is a graph from Juneau, Alaska:
The sea level is actually dropping on average at over a 75 year period at about a half inch a year. (The land mass is actually rising due to subduction)
Now this next graph I chose is from Kwajalein in the Pacific Ocean:
I didn’t pick this site for its seemingly average rise, I simply chose this graph because I clicked on the icon from NOAA’s website that suggests that it was rapidly increasing in sea level.
Here is a screen shot of what I mean:
Here is one more graph from NOAA’s website that is a annual sea level anomaly for North America:
This photo clearly expresses my doubt about models, scare tactics used by media, and why it is so important for each of us to draw our own conclusions from simple research techniques. All across the contiguous lower 48 in the year 2008, there were no increases of any kind. None. Yet there were over a half dozen sites along the west coast that displayed an actual decrease in sea level.
Draw your own conclusions. Research to find the facts regarding climate change, and any other so-called scientific proof of global warming shared by the media.
The facts are out there. All one has to do is look for it.
To be continued…..